At the end of February 2023, the price of oil (WTI and Brent), Henry Hub and ICE natural gas, aluminum, copper, steel, corn, wheat, and the Baltic Dry Index are below the February 2022 levels. The Supply Chain Index and the global supply-demand balance, published by Morgan Stanley, have declined to September 2022 levels. However, the latest
Every time the United States reaches its debt limit, we read that it is important to reach an agreement to lift it. The narrative is that the debt ceiling must be raised, or the US economy will suffer a severe contraction. There is even an episode of a TV series, “Designated Survivor”, where the character played by Kiefer Sutherland places lifting
In this era of monetary fiction , one tends to read all types of undocumented and misguided views on monetary policy. However, if there is one that really is infuriating is the MMT (modern monetary theory) science fiction. One of its main principles is based on a fallacy. “A country with monetary sovereignty can issue all the debt it needs without
How can a small rise in bond yields scare policymakers so much? Ned Davis Research estimates that a 2% yield in the US 10-year bond could lead the Nasdaq to fall 20%, and with it the entire stock market globally. A 2% yield can cause such disruption? How did we get to such a situation? Central banks have artificially depressed sovereign bond
The pace of global recoveries since 1975 has been slower and weaker, consistently every time, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Recoveries take longer and happen slower. At the same time, periods of crisis are less aggressive albeit more frequent than prior to 1975. Another interesting evidence of the
Central banks do not manage risk, they disguise it. You know you live in a bubble when a small bounce in sovereign bond yields generates an immediate panic reaction from central banks trying to prevent those yields from rising further. It is particularly more evident when the alleged soar in yields comes after years of artificially depressing them
If we looked at most investment bank outlook reports for 2021, one of the main consensus themes was a strong conviction on a rapid and robust eurozone recovery. They were wrong. This week, Capital Economics joined other analysts and downgraded the eurozone growth, highlighting “We now think that the eurozone economy will recover more slowly than
The International Monetary Fund has published its April outlook for the global economy. It has been hailed by most commentators due to the strong upgrade in GDP recovery. The report states that “global growth is projected at 6% in 2021, moderating to 4.4% in 2022. The upward revision reflects additional fiscal support in a few large economies, the
Listen to the Audio Mises Wire version of this article. The United States: Hardly A Recovery There is an overly optimistic consensus view about the speed and strength of the United States’ recovery that is contradicted by facts. It is true that the United States recovery is stronger than the European or Japanese one, but the macrodata shows
Listen to the Audio Mises Wire version of this article. Anyone who believes the “rich” and large corporations will pay for $28 trillion in debt or the $2 trillion in new deficit has a real problem with math. Biden’s announcement of a massive tax increase on businesses and wealthier segments of the population simply makes no sense. The tax
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The Mises Institute is a non-profit organization that exists to promote teaching and research in the Austrian School of economics, individual freedom, honest history, and international peace, in the tradition of Ludwig von Mises and Murray N. Rothbard.
Non-political, non-partisan, and non-PC, we advocate a radical shift in the intellectual climate, away from statism and toward a private property order. We believe that our foundational ideas are of permanent value, and oppose all efforts at compromise, sellout, and amalgamation of these ideas with fashionable political, cultural, and social doctrines inimical to their spirit.