Consumer Prices Flat in May, say the headlines. But the BLS press release tells a more complicated story: “During the first five months of 2003, the CPI-U rose at a 2.3 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR).This compares with an increase of 2.4 percent for all of 2002. The index for energy, which rose 10.7 percent in 2002, advanced at a 16.5 percent SAAR in the first five months of 2003. Petroleum-based energy costs increased at an 11.5 percent annual rate and charges for energy services rose at a 21.2 percent annual rate. The food index has increased at a 2.2 percent SAAR thus far this year, following a 1.5 percent rise for all of 2002. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U advanced at a 1.1 percent SAAR in the first five months, following a 1.9 percent rise in all of 2002. The food and beverages index rose 0.3 percent in May. The index for food at home, which declined 0.2 percent in April, advanced 0.4 percent in May. The index for fruits and vegetables rose 1.9 percent in May after declining 1.4 percent in April and accounted for about 80 percent of the acceleration in the grocery store food component. The indexes for fresh fruits, for fresh vegetables, and for processed fruits and vegetables increased 1.1, 2.8, and 1.9 percent, respectively. The indexes for cereals and bakery products and for other food at home also turned up in May, increasing 0.5 and 0.2 percent, respectively. The index for meats, poultry, fish and eggs, which increased 0.6 percent in April, declined 0.2 percent in May. The indexes for beef and for poultry fell 0.5 and 1.2 percent, respectively, while the index for pork rose 0.2 percent. The remaining two major grocery store food groups--nonalcoholic beverages and dairy products--increased 0.6 and decreased 0.2 percent, respectively. The other two components of the food and beverage index--food away from home and alcoholic beverages--each increased 0.2 percent. The index for housing increased 0.4 percent in May. Shelter costs increased 0.6 percent after registering little change over the preceding three months. Within shelter, the index for rent rose 0.3 percent, owners’ equivalent rent increased 0.2 percent, and the index for lodging away from home rose 4.1 percent. (Prior to seasonal adjustment, the index for lodging away from home rose 2.3 percent.) The index for fuels and utilities, which declined 1.0 percent in April, rose 0.2 percent in May. The index for fuel oil decreased 6.3 percent in May, but prices for fuel oil were 21.4 percent higher than in May 2002. The index for natural gas also declined for the second consecutive month--down 1.6 percent in May--but charges remain 24.8 percent higher than a year earlier. The index for electricity increased 1.5 percent in May and has risen 3.7 percent in the last 12 months. The index for household furnishings and operations declined 0.5 percent in May.”
Prices Unchanged?
