More than three years ago, Russian forces began advancing into Ukrainian-held territory. The outcry from Washington and its allies was immediate and sharp. Russian President Vladimir Putin was denounced as a “dictator” in the press in Europe and North America–and also in Japan, where anti-Russian hyperbole has outdone even the most strident voices in the West.
A lone Japanese lawmaker refused to join the chorus. In October 2023, Hokkaido-based House of Councilors member Suzuki Muneo visited Russia and met with top officials there. He was roundly attacked in the Japanese press for communicating with the enemy.
As we learned in an interview with Suzuki after his visit, Suzuki does not see Russia as an enemy, but as a valuable trading partner too important in terms of resources and geopolitics to approach on Washington’s all-or-nothing terms. In a follow-up interview to our initial meeting, we learned more about Suzuki’s understanding of Russia-Japan diplomatic history and his vision for Japan in an increasingly multipolar world.
In April 2025, we met with Suzuki for a third time in his office building near the Diet in downtown Tokyo. With the Ukraine conflict grinding down, we asked Suzuki to look back on the past three years, and ahead to Japan’s place in the emerging world order.
Events surrounding Ukraine have unfolded more or less as you have been saying. What happens from here?
My view is that in a war both sides have their own aims and their own justifications for fighting. However that may be, the most important thing is to stop the fighting as quickly as possible. I have therefore argued for a ceasefire.
Japan’s experience in World War II is instructive here. I don’t want Ukraine to repeat Japan’s mistake. If Japan had surrendered six months earlier than it did, then there would have been no firebombing of Tokyo, no Battle of Okinawa, no atomic bombing of Hiroshima or Nagasaki.
At that time, a contingent in the Japanese military was saying that Japan would fight to the last soldier, to the last Japanese. Such people were advocating having women and children take up bamboo spears to fight the Americans. Japan’s central command took this position, which led to Japan incurring enormous damage thereafter.
Donald Trump, before he returned to the White House in January of 2025, had been saying that as president, he would end the Ukraine conflict in twenty-four hours. But when he got back in office, he saw the complexity and difficulty of the situation, and that it would be impossible to effect a peace deal in a day. On January 7, 2025, Trump revised his outlook, saying that it would take six months to bring peace to Ukraine. I think this is about right, that the conflict will draw to a close in May or June.
Where will the line be drawn dividing Russia from Ukraine? Will Russia get to keep the territory it has seized during the past three-plus years?
If this issue is on the table at this stage, then a ceasefire becomes impossible. Russia and Ukraine both want to save face. Russia, for its part, has its own clear objectives. First, a ceasefire must come. The details must be hammered out after the fighting stops.
What will happen to Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014?
These details are to be worked out later. But what must be kept in mind is that Ukraine has no chance of winning against Russia, no matter what Ukraine does. Trump has now said this, too, which I think is an entirely reasonable position for him to adopt.
Some intellectuals in Japan argue that if Japan and Europe continue to provide support for Ukraine, then Ukraine can keep on fighting for two more years, even if the United States withholds further support.
That’s a preposterous argument. We must be careful not to dismiss Russia, for Russia is a powerful country. Russia has energy resources, and also has the capacity to produce military materiel, including missiles, at a very high level.
The Japanese mainstream media are almost entirely anti-Trump, saying that he abandoned Ukraine, and are also almost entirely anti-Putin. Why do you think the media in Japan have acted in this way?
The Japanese mainstream media have been constrained by the English and American media. Also, Biden and former Prime Minister Kishida Fumio made decisions on an entirely too narrow understanding of events. The Ukraine conflict could have ended anytime if America had stopped sending weapons and called for the fighting to stop. But President Biden promised weapons, promised money. This is why the conflict dragged on for as long as it has. The Germans sent tanks to Ukraine, and the British talked about sending fighter planes. But the conflict is now long past the point where that can make any difference. Russia is in an overwhelmingly advantageous position.
There is one other thing to consider. At the end of World War II, Japan was running out of food. People left the big cities for the countryside in search of enough food to eat. If there’s food, then people can go on fighting. If not, then there’s no hope. Russia has plenty of food. They are completely self-sufficient now in terms of food production. This is an effect of the Crimean situation, a product of the lessons Russia learned then, after having economic sanctions imposed on it and being unable to import certain goods. President Putin decided that Russia would make use of its vast land and produce enough food for Russia within Russia.
President Biden said Russia would surrender in two months in the face of American sanctions. That was three years ago. It is unfortunate that Japan went along with this. At that time, almost every politician in Japan was saying that Ukraine is in the right and Russia is in the wrong. The only politician in Japan who has spoken the truth from the beginning and who has maintained a consistent position is me.
Washington has lost its proxy war in Ukraine. It lost in Afghanistan before that. It lost in Iraq. The age of America as a superpower is closing. How should Japan reassess its relationship with America going forward?
It is important to cultivate relations with geopolitical neighbors. And we have to be forward-thinking in our analysis. Former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo told then-President Barack Obama that Japan would not join America in imposing economic sanctions on Russia after Russia invaded Crimea in 2014. Prime Minister Abe told President Obama that Japan would pursue its own course and would remain true to its own values. Prime Minister Abe made Japan’s position clear. This is why both Japan-US relations and Japan-Russia relations went smoothly at the time.
However, during the tenure of Prime Minister Kishida, the Japanese government went all-in on its relationship with Washington. As a result, Japan-Russia relations are said to be at their lowest point since the end of World War II.
Japan imports about one-tenth of its oil and natural gas from Russia. Imagine what would happen if this supply were cut off. Japan experienced an oil shock in 1973, when about ten percent of Japan’s energy imports were suspended from the Middle East. Japan was plunged into chaos. People were panic-buying toilet paper due to rumors that imports of such goods would stop. Why would a country, Japan, that has experienced a ten-percent cut in energy imports and the chaos that followed risk the same thing happening again?
America is ten thousand kilometers across the ocean from Japan. Russia, China, South Korea, North Korea–these are our neighbors. We must find a way to get along with them.
European countries such as England and France are talking about a “coalition of the willing” to continue fighting against Russia.
This is thinking from a bygone era. We must think strategically, in terms of world politics and developments. The BRICS countries are ascendant. Japan often says that it will work in partnership with the G7. But the G7 is losing influence.
Japan should continue maintaining strong relations with America. But Japan has to practice balancing diplomacy. Japan can work to bridge the gap between Europe and America. Japan can work to bring stability to East Asia. This is Japan’s role in a changing region and world.
I met Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru on January 15, 2025, before he met with Trump in February. I know that Prime Minister Ishiba has his own well-considered views. The trouble is that one does not find these reflected in his public comments. Some of the documents from which Prime Minister Ishiba reads appear to have been written for him by the Foreign Ministry. The Foreign Ministry is completely swayed by Washington. I think this, too, is a way of doing things that belongs in the past.
