For the first five months of the 2025 fiscal year, federal spending is coming in at the highest level ever. This is true even when we adjust for CPI inflation.
This largely reflects Biden-era spending since the current fiscal year began during October 2024, during the Biden administration. In 2025 dollars, federal spending for the current fiscal year so far has totaled 3.039 trillion dollars. This makes 2025’s spending total the highest ever and it’s coming in above the covid-era total (3.012 trillion) reached during the first five months of fiscal year 2021.
In nominal terms, the growth is even larger with federal spending so far this year coming in at about half a trillion more than the previous all-time high reached during 2021.
This data only covers the period through the end of February so it’s still too early to guess as to the full impact of any spending-cut initiatives coming out of the Trump administration. We do know that, in spite of many claims coming out of the administration, no significant impact can yet be seen in the federal spending data.
Revenue, however, has not been keeping up, so the high levels of spending has also driven ongoing growth in total federal deficits. For the first five months of fiscal year 2025, the federal deficit totals 1.146 trillion in 2025 dollars. That’s the second-highest deficit total on record. Only FY 2021’s total of 1.259 trillion was higher.
This number is likely to only get higher. In spite of much talk about spending cuts and tax cuts during last month’s debate over new spending legislation, the Republican leadership’s own numbers show that the Trump-approved budget under the Republicans will only increase each annual deficit further in coming years.
For this reason, Kentucky Congressman Thomas Massie noted he would vote against the Republicans’ proposed budget, and he pointed out that even the best-case scenarios assumed by Republican leaders would still produce a growing deficit and total growing federal debt.
On February 25, Massie posted on X/Twitter that “The GOP budget extends the 5 yr. tax holiday we’ve been enjoying, but because it doesn’t cut spending much, it increases the deficit by over $300 billion/yr. compared to letting tax cuts expire. Over 10 years, this budget will add $20 trillion to US debt.”
The GOP budget extends the 5 yr. tax holiday we’ve been enjoying, but because it doesn’t cut spending much, it increases the deficit by over $300 billion/yr. compared to letting tax cuts expire. Over 10 years, this budget will add $20 trillion to US debt.pic.twitter.com/JZ2tDoTHI6
— Thomas Massie (@RepThomasMassie) February 25, 2025
The rosy predictions for future deficits, as is usual for government budget claims, assumes there will be no recession in coming months or years, since a recession would lead to falling tax revenues and a ballooning of federal debt.
Massie was also dismissive of the Republican leadership’s claims that the GOP congress would cap discretionary spending and then spend at the rate of inflation after that. “That has never happened,” Massie correctly noted.
Massie also explained that much of the Republican plan is built on spending and deficit cuts “over ten years.” For anyone who is actually paying attention, however, it’s clear that these ten-year plans for spending and deficit reduction are little more than smoke and mirrors. “ After all, no Congress can bind a future congress to any budgetary plan. Congress, at any given time simply spends as it wishes. Thus, Massie concludes that “Anything beyond the third year [in a ten-year budget plan] never happens” He’s right.
As it is, the federal government continues to hurtle toward a 40-trillion-dollar debt total. Although the Trump administration touts its efforts to cut spending via the elimination of some relatively minor government departments, the fact remains that cuts to unpopular discretionary spending is not enough. To make cuts to popular programs like defense spending, Social Security, and Medicaid. Needless to say, this is unlikely to happen.
