The National Bureau of Economic Research says in its new release that “a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in November 2001. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in March 2001 and the beginning of an expansion. The recession lasted 8 months, which is slightly less than average for recessions since World War II.” It also adds that “it is not possible to identify the month of a peak or trough rapidly.”
But what about the rise in unemployment? “Growth in real GDP has resulted entirely from productivity growth. As a result, the growth in real GDP has been accompanied by falling employment.”
Might the trough be revised again? “The committee would revise the November 2001 date if it concluded that it was incorrect.”
Has a new recession already begun? “The committee does not forecast or comment on current economic activity.”
