In his weekly overview for Man Financial, Frank Shostak writes:
“According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) the recession that began in March 2001 ended eight months later in November 2001. Our analysis, however, shows that the cyclical downturn had begun much earlier. Also, the NBER has forgotten to say that since Q3 2002 the economy in terms of real GDP has been in a cyclical downturn. The yearly rate of growth of real GDP peaked in Q2 2000 at 4.9% and bottomed at -0.4% in Q3 2001. The growth momentum of real GDP, after rising for one year, topped at 3.3% in Q3 2002. Since that period economic activity in terms of real GDP has been in a cyclical downturn. In terms of deviation from its long-term trend real GDP peaked at 273 in Q2 2000 and since that period it has been falling. Moreover it has been below its longterm trend for two years now. Likewise the yearly rate of growth of industrial production — it peaked in June 2000 at 6.1%. The growth momentum of production bottomed in December 2001 at -5.9%. From that period growth momentum had been on an up-trend until November 2002 when it peaked at 1.8%. Since that time growth momentum has been falling. It stood at -1.03% in June. In terms of the deviation from its long-term trend industrial production peaked in May 2000 and since then it has been falling. Furthermore, it has been below its longterm trend for 25 consecutive months.”
