U.S. Economy

Social Security is headed for reduced benefits, and no amount of political rhetoric or even tax increases will solve that problem. The numbers do not lie.

Policies that have never worked are being implemented at an astonishing pace and with enormous levels of money printing and debt, and the government blames anyone except themselves for poor consumer and business confidence. This is not a strong economy. 

2023 proved that central banks’ policy was restrictive in name only. Policy was restrictive only for the private sector, especially small and medium enterprises, and families. Policy was not for governments.

Political and economic elites predicted a doomsday scenario when Trump was elected in 2016, but the reality of his presidency didn’t come close to matching the apocalyptic rhetoric that accompanied it.

Mark looks at the disconnect between the Fed, the stock market, and the Real Economy.

Ryan and Tho are joined by Doug French to discuss the health of US banks, the specific dangers of commercial real estate debt, and the risks of industry consolidation.

While economists speak of GDP as a legitimate measure of the economy, a closer look tells us that it is biased toward consumer spending and fails to give a true measure of the value of capital.

Governments in the US subsidize immigration through a bevy of welfare programs. The effect of subsidization is predictable: you get more of what you subsidize. This is true for student loans, ethanol, immigrants, and more.

In a recent statement, the Federal Reserve declared that US banks are "sound and resilient," but a lot of markets, including real estate, testify to a very different situation.

In this week's episode, Mark takes a quick look back at Fed wisdom in the year 2000 versus 2024.